C.
Flaw in the "objective" Wins Above Replacement statistic
The placement of an asterisk leaves a lot to subjectivity. Whether there should be an asterisk, how much
weight to give the asterisk, and what the asterisk means (if anything) are all
relative to the observer. On the other
hand, modern day statisticians have been working on complex mathematical
equations that compare players across all eras objectively.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an estimation of the number of wins a
player adds to his team in any given year.[i] Basically, because you have player A on team
B, as opposed to a replacement player (denied as a bottom-tiered major
league/top-tiered minor league player), team B won X number of additional games
than they would have otherwise.[ii] For example, Miguel Cabrera had an estimated
WAR of 7.5 in 2013.[iii] Therefore, it is estimated that the 2013
Detroit Tigers won 7.5 more games with Miguel Cabrera than they would have had
they called up their third baseman from Toledo (the Tiger's AAA team).
WAR is a valuable tool when comparing any player's value to another.[iv] WAR allows for shorter seasons, various size
ballparks, "pitchers eras", contraction, and expansion by always
comparing a player against a "replacement player" from the same year
who was playing in the same number of games, with the same number of teams,
etc.[v] However, WAR has a fatal flaw when it comes
to calculating the value of pre-integration players. Pre-integration players "replacement
player" is significantly worse than a post integration "replacement
player" because the Major Leagues did not allow all of the best players to
play.
For every African American player who began to play in the Major
Leagues, there was one less roster spot to be occupied by a white player. It follows that many players who were
considered "replacement" caliber pre-integration were much worse, and
many regular players were in fact, "replacement" level. Thus, after integration, WAR compared players
against a much better replacement player, and players would have to perform
substantially better in order to get "wins above" what the
replacement level player could produce.
This hypothesis is supported by the significantly greater presence of
pre-integration players on all time WAR
leader boards.[vi] Six of the top ten players on the Career WAR
Rankings (Ruth 183.6, Cy Young 168.4, Walter Johnson 165.6, Cobb 151.1, Speaker
133.6, and Wagner 131.0) all played their entire careers in segregated
baseball.[vii] Further, of the four post integration players
listed in the top ten, two have been implicated as users of performance
enhancing drugs (Barry Bonds 162.4 and Roger Clemens 140.3).[viii] The two remaining PED-free, post integration
players on the list are both African Americans (Willie Mays 156.2 and Hank
Aaron 142.6).[ix] Without the above criticism of the WAR
calculation, an otherwise objective review of the top ten WAR players would
yield a finding that the most valuable players of all time are, for the most
part, white. On the other hand, when
accounting for the weaker "replacement player" for pre-integration
players, pre-integration players WAR is diminished.
WAR, as is currently calculated, provides supposedly objective evidence
to the dominant group narrative of the superiority of pre-integration
players. However, a counter narrative
emerges when the otherwise objective WAR calculation properly factors in a
reduction based on the vastly inferior "replacement player"
pre-integration players are compared to.
For this example, players who played their entire careers before 1947
have their career WAR total reduced by 30%[x],
players who played before and after 1947 have their career WAR total reduced by
15%[xi],
and players implicated in PED use are omitted.[xii] The recalculated top ten career WAR players
looks like this:
1) Willie Mays 156.2
2) Hank Aaron 142.6
3) Babe Ruth 128.5
4) Cy Young 117.9
5) Walter Johnson 115.9
6) Rickey Henderson 110.8
7) Tom Seaver 110.5
8) Mickey Mantle 109.7
9) Stan Musial 108.9
10) Frank Robinson 107.2
This is not a perfect ranking[xiii]
but it exemplifies three important parts of a counter-narrative. First, the greatest African American players
are vastly under-rated in the number of wins they created for their teams
within the traditional WAR calculation.
Second, many of the greatest post-integration white players (Seaver,
Mantle etc.) are similarly under-rated.
Finally, Babe Ruth is not the greatest player of all time. Ruth's maintaining third place on the list,
despite a deduction, is a testament to his greatness; however, Mays and Aaron,
whom played in baseball's true golden era, are markedly better in terms of career
WAR.
[i] War Explained, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
(last visited April 13, 2014).
[ii] Id. (The advanced statistical formulas
used to determine WAR are outside the scope of this article).
[iii] Miguel Cabrera, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml
(last visited April 13, 2014).
[iv] War
Explained, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
(last visited April 13, 2014).
[v] Id.
[vi]
Baseball Reference, Career Leaders&
Records for Wins Above Replacement, http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml,
(last visited April 13, 2014).
[vii] Id. (years played in career can be seen
by clicking on an individual players name)
[viii]
Id.
[ix] Id.
[x]
This is a somewhat ambiguous number. 30%
is probably not a great enough reduction, but is used here to simplify the
illustration. A proper reduction will be
left to sabermaticians.
[xi]
See footnote 113.
[xii]
This is not to say these players are undeserving, rather to keep the example
limited to one factor.
[xiii]
Most glaring is the lack of any Negro League legends.
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